Written by: Glenn Warciski
Last season, the Giants posted a dismal 5-11 record. Although they won 5 games, the Giants had a 4-8 record in one score games. In other words, their overall outcome of total wins could have been better. On the other hand, we have pointed out here on the NYGunderground.com, the Giants were able to make games closer by scoring points in garbage time. And, in four out of their 5 wins, they defeated teams playing backup quarterback. (49ers, Bears, Bucs, and Redskins). Perhaps, the Giants record could have been worse. Furthermore, we have suggested Eli Manning is the main reason for the offensive struggles. However, on the contrary, Giants GM Dave Gettleman bristled at Eli Manning being the problem for the offensive woes, calling it a crock. In turn, Gettleman blamed his defensive unit for being the culprit. This message has been parroted by some of lemmings who cover the team. Is this true? Or is it propaganda spewed by Gettleman? Is all the aforementioned reasoning anecdotal? This got me thinking. So what can we learn about 2018 Giants and this upcoming season?
Plugging in the data elements into the equation: PF squared/(PF squared + PA squared )
Then multiplying by 16 gives the number of games the Giants should have won. This number turns out to be seven. So based on this formula, the Giants should have won seven games. As we posted here, the Giants use analytics for game preparation and analysis. Perhaps, this is why Gettleman believes his team can compete in 2019. Based on data, teams like the Giants who underperform their pythagorean win total have a higher win total the following year. This is due to playing a weaker schedule. The Giants play teams who were last in their respective divisions as well as playing the 3 blind mice teams of the AFC East. Because the Giants finished with 5 wins, their draft position engendered them to select players who have a better chance of making the team and having a positive impact.
To sum up, despite Vegas’ expectation of a 6 win over/under bet, the pythagorean formula suggests the Giants could have a successful 2019.