Monday Morning Giants-(MMG) Giants and Pythagorean Theorem

the-pythagorean-formula

Written by: Glenn Warciski

Last season, the Giants posted a dismal 5-11 record.  Although they won 5 games,  the Giants had a 4-8 record in one score games.  In other words, their overall outcome of total wins could have been better.  On the other hand,  we have pointed out here on the NYGunderground.com,  the Giants were able to make games closer by scoring points in garbage time.  And,  in four out of their 5 wins,  they defeated teams playing backup quarterback. (49ers, Bears, Bucs, and Redskins).  Perhaps, the Giants record could have been worse.  Furthermore, we have suggested Eli Manning is the main reason for the offensive struggles.  However, on the contrary,   Giants GM Dave Gettleman bristled at Eli Manning being the problem for the offensive woes, calling it a crock.  In turn, Gettleman blamed his defensive unit for being the culprit.  This message has been parroted by some of lemmings who cover the team.  Is this true?  Or is it propaganda spewed by Gettleman?  Is all the aforementioned reasoning anecdotal?  This got me thinking.  So what can we learn about 2018 Giants and this upcoming season?

I stumbled upon a pythagorean formula which predicts how many games a team should have won in a given season.  This is nothing new,  Football Outsiders website did an extensive post on this topic.

Plugging in the data elements into the equation:  PF squared/(PF squared + PA squared )

Then multiplying by 16 gives the number of games the Giants should have won.   This number turns out to be seven.  So based on this formula,  the Giants should have won seven games.  As we posted here,  the Giants use analytics for game preparation and analysis.  Perhaps,  this is why Gettleman believes his team can compete in 2019.  Based on data, teams like the Giants who underperform their pythagorean win total have a higher win total the following year.  This is due to playing a weaker schedule.  The Giants play teams who were last in their respective divisions as well as playing the 3 blind mice teams of the AFC East.  Because the Giants finished with 5 wins,  their draft position engendered them to select players who have a better chance of making the team and having a positive impact.

To sum up,  despite Vegas’ expectation of a 6 win over/under bet,  the pythagorean formula suggests the Giants could have a successful 2019.

 

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2 thoughts on “Monday Morning Giants-(MMG) Giants and Pythagorean Theorem

  1. John F August 26, 2019 / 12:39 pm

    My gut feel (not worth much….) is that the Giants finish somewhere around 8-8 this year and at least still have a shot at the playoffs in early December. Maybe I am drinking the blue Giants kool-aid, but that is what I have been thinking.

    The whole situation with Manning and Jones is going to be interesting. It is very possible that the offense does enough to win games but the young Giants defense lets some games slip away. If the Giants are on the negative side of the W-L columns after about 8 games, we will probably see Jones. I am very encouraged by what I see in Jones. I will admit, I was very upset the night when Jones was drafted at #6. I will gladly admit to be wrong if that is the case. So far, Jones is looking good.

    I know this isn’t a popular opinion these days, but I am going to be sad to see Eli go. It is time for a new QB, but Eli has been a great Giant. Part of this is the little brother in me has always stuck up for him!

    Here is hoping for a positive Giants season. We are overdue!

    Like

    • nygunderground August 26, 2019 / 12:41 pm

      I agree with everything you stated. Thank you for reading. You are true Blue.

      Meanwhile. I think they have to win the first game of year.
      This will help with confidence.

      Like

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